If Kerry loses OH(20), FL(27), and CO (10), and if he wins all his projected easy states (CA, CT, DC, DE, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA) plus WI, MI, HI, NM, NV, and IA, it’s tied.

Kerry can lose FL(27), CO(9), NM(5), and NV(5) if he wins all his easy states (above) plus WI, MI, OH and one or both of IA or HI. Kerry Total 271-279.

If you’re not an insane spreadsheet-wielding maniac like me, here an EV tally for you to play with.

Given those assessments, you might be interested in tracking OH numbers on their state page.

Though a FL loss is definitely in the cards tonight, the state has an obscene amount of absentee ballots to be counted, so unless someone wins clearly without FL it’s not actually over until they’re counted.

CNN article here. Just in the heavily Democratic Broward and Miami-Dade there are a combined total of approximately 186,000 ballots. Kerry currently holds a roughly 19.5% lead in those counties combined, which would translate to less than a 4,000 net gain from the absentee ballots. He needs over 300k to overtake bush.