Crushing Krisis

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Numbers

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If Kerry loses OH(20), FL(27), and CO (10), and if he wins all his projected easy states (CA, CT, DC, DE, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA) plus WI, MI, HI, NM, NV, and IA, it’s tied.

Kerry can lose FL(27), CO(9), NM(5), and NV(5) if he wins all his easy states (above) plus WI, MI, OH and one or both of IA or HI. Kerry Total 271-279.

If you’re not an insane spreadsheet-wielding maniac like me, here an EV tally for you to play with.

Given those assessments, you might be interested in tracking OH numbers on their state page.

Though a FL loss is definitely in the cards tonight, the state has an obscene amount of absentee ballots to be counted, so unless someone wins clearly without FL it’s not actually over until they’re counted.

CNN article here. Just in the heavily Democratic Broward and Miami-Dade there are a combined total of approximately 186,000 ballots. Kerry currently holds a roughly 19.5% lead in those counties combined, which would translate to less than a 4,000 net gain from the absentee ballots. He needs over 300k to overtake bush.

Fighting Fair

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Election Resources:

Real-Time NYT Results Map (excellent format, with the ever-sexy “Map by Electoral Vote”)

CNN Results Map (allows you to drill down to the county level – awesome).

AP/C-Span Map

My Due Diligence dot Com (blog-style reporting on Congressional Races)

Vote/Election fraud, vote suppression, voting irregularities, voter intimidation

Election Law Blog

Electoral Vote (backups!!!!!!!)

1:05PM – Ariel, who is working downtown as a poll inspector, reports that Center City Philadelphia polls had more voters by noon than they did in the last Mayoral election.

6:30PM – GOP tries to delay count of Philly absentee ballots. Read the complaint – it’s completely valid. Delaying the Philly absentees won’t have too large of an effect on local elections, but it will have a noticeable impact on the overall state total. This is why i refuse to vote absentee.

6:50PM – PA Results (who knows how timely they’ll be)

Watch out for pages that will announce a predicted winner based on exit polls – as we saw in the case of networks calling Florida early in 2000, nothing counts except the final vote total.


8:05PM – What to Watch For on Election Night (nothing new to me, but a solid read)

9:50PM – Everyone calls NY for Kerry with only 9% reporting. No one calls PA for Kerry with 20%. To be fair, Philly is reporting fairly early, which will skew the state result right up until the last second, but i really don’t think PA is gonna be as close as it’s supposed to be.

Bushies, Ashlee, and Kaki

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Via my (now-daily) addiction Electoral-Vote.com, here’s an excellent article about the so-called “incumbent rule” and why Bush might not be doing as well as the media would have you and I believe. The “media narrative” definitely proffers a good deal of “Bush will carry it” propaganda, but honestly I think it’s just in respect and deferrence to an incumbent. I wish I could remember the poll coverage from Bush Sr.’s loss to Clinton to confirm this claim.

Just a reminder: vote, or stop talking to me. Seriously. Forever. I don’t care who you vote for, or if you think the electoral college is stupid, or if you are trying achieve the zen state of existence that is Reality Bites. Vote, or shut the fuck up.

About half of my department is just now leaving to see the Kerry/Bush/Bon Jovi rally in Love Park, though it is reportedly already packed solid. It’s strange to feel the crackle of political energy in the workplace; the majority of my co-workers are liberals, but elevator conversation ranges from talk of the rally to chats about the infallibility of Bush. As one of the youngest employees in the building, I wisely keep my mouth shut – as strongly as I believe in my politics, I will be the last one to bring them up in an elevator with corporate suits flanking me.

And, while we’re rounding up links, Ashlee’s Simpson’s lip-synch gaffe is perhaps the funniest moment I’ve seen on SNL in over a decade. I won’t ruin the fun for you; see it here. I really wanted to believe that the junior Simpson actual had the musical chops her album represents, but after this debacle I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that she didn’t have a hand in writing as much of her album as she’d have us believe. I look forward to the post-event spin on this one, considering the band and computer failure have already been blamed.

Who are we kidding, I wouldn’t have been surprised to hear about that in the first place. Somewhere Avril is giggling. Also, netted from that MeFi thread, Kaki King’s new video. Watching her play melts my music synapses.Take a look.

Red Fish, Blue Fish.

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Electoral College Tracker, via Josh Woodward. Aggregates poll data to predict the winner of each state, and uses that to predict the electoral total. Interesting if you put any faith into political polls when the race is this close; i find the most useful element of the site to be the graphs of individual state polls complete with trend-lines.